L. Allen Torell and Subramanian Murugan. Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University, P.O. Box 30003, MSC 3169, Las Cruces, NM 88003-3169
Rainfall is variable and unpredictable and as a result, annual forage production is variable and unpredictable. Planning for drought and variability in available forage remains a challenge for rangeland managers throughout the world. A linear programming model was developed to explore profit maximizing strategies when annual forage production varies. The land resources, production practices, and observed variability in forage production on the New Mexico State University Corona Ranch in central New Mexico were used to define the multi-period (40 year) LP model. A Monte-Carlo analysis was performed using 4000 different beef price and production scenarios where both prices and available forage varied annually. Possible adjustments to variability in prices and forage levels included leasing outside forage, reducing herd size, and maintaining a core cow herd that is set below what would be detrimental to the range during most drought years. Any excess forage produced in average or above average years would be utilized by purchased animals or with forage leased to others. The analysis clearly demonstrates the economic importance of maintaining stocking rate flexibility by including a flexible enterprise like purchased stocker animals in addition to the traditional cow/calf enterprise. Only one-third of available forage would optimally be harvested by a cow-herd maintained on the ranch across multiple years. The remaining forage would be harvested by yearlings that could be purchased or not purchased depending on forage conditions. The net present value of discounted net returns would increase 34% by including flexible enterprises as compared to having only a cow/calf enterprise. Forage shortfalls would be expected 21% of the time given the distribution of annual forage production on the Corona Ranch and it was generally more profitable to maintain the core cow herd through drought periods by leasing relatively expensive outside forage than to reduce cow numbers.